The second round of the playoffs has commenced and last night, the Phoenix Suns won the first game of a best of seven series against the opposing Dallas Mavericks. The final score was 121-114, but the game wasn't this close until its closing couple of minutes. It was a great all-around performance for the Suns as they had 6 players on their team score in double digits, almost 7, but backup point guard Cameron Payne came just short with 9 points. Dallas, on the other hand, had merely 4 players on their team score in double digits. This includes a joyously welcomed surprise from Maxi Kleber, who poured in 19 coming off the bench, keeping the Mavericks afloat early in the game with 5 made threes in the first half. Despite the loss, Luka Dončić did all he could for the Mavericks, scoring 45 points, and coming up 2 rebounds shy of a triple-double. Looking past this game though, we're left to question if the Mavericks can upset the Suns, or at the very least, steal a few games and make the series competitive?
The Mavericks are heavily reliant on 3-point shooting, as we can tell from game 1 of this series, in which nearly half of all the shots they took were from behind the arc (39 shots of 85 were 3-pointers). They generate a majority of their shots from Luka having the ball, penetrating into the lane towards the hoop, and kicking out to shooters on the perimeter, who then jack up shots. If they're not open when the rock (rock = basketball) gets kicked out to them, the ball usually gets passed back to Luka to repeat the same process or create a shot for himself. This playstyle is heavily reminiscent of the Houston Rockets' offense a few years ago with James Harden as the superstar with the ball in his hands; an era of the Houston Rockets that coincidently had Chris Paul as James Harden's co-star. While this playstyle can be extremely effective for teams that have an offensive juggernaut such as Luka, and are completely loaded with shooters as the Mavericks are, top to bottom, these teams absolutely live by the three or die by the three. So by implementing an offense such as they have in order to be lethal on that side of the ball, they also have to accept losing the games their 3-point shot is simply not falling. And it's not that their 3-point shot wasn't falling yesterday, rather, the Mavs executed their playstyle how it's supposed to be executed and shot above-average from 3. Now, see, it worries me for the Mavericks that they can play exactly how they want to play and how they've played all season...and still end up losing by what really should have been double digits; excuse their very late push to dress the scoreboard. But also, with their playstyle, their team is liable to have games where the shot doesn't fall, plus the tremendous pressure from a stifling Phoenix defense, and in those circumstances, they are pretty much set to lose. There's no question the Mavericks are outmatched this series, however, they do have a fringe top-5 player in the whole league in Luka Dončić, and you can never count out a team with a player of his caliber. But, I also believe in this Mavericks team as a whole, not that I necessarily favor them to win, but I believe in their personnel besides Luka to a point where I can see a world where they knock out the Suns. Of course, this gets a little trickier when their playstyle is so predictable and seemingly not working. In their last series, Mavericks vs. Jazz, I picked the Jazz to win the series because overall they looked like a better team and they also had two stars in Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell--sort of like this Phoenix team. However, the Mavericks ended up winning, even with Luka missing two games! In one of those games Luka missed, the Mavs won, in large part because of a 40-point bomb from Jalen Brunson. So there's a good chance the Mavericks can firepower their way past the Suns if Brunson can contribute some big games. In game 1, he was passive for the most part as he was in foul trouble pretty much all game, and therefore kept getting subbed out, which probably stifled his ability to garner rhythm. But going forward, if he can refrain from racking up fouls and, instead, deliver offensive blows next to Luka, then the Mavericks can certainly steal a few games and maybe even win the series. The Mavericks are also at a huge rebouding disadvantage, this was seen in game 1, as the Suns have a young, star bigman in Deandre Ayton--who the Mavericks have no answer for. Their big positions are filled by Maxi Kleber, Davis Bertans, and Dwight Powell. Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans both being shooters that hang around the perimeter mostly, waiting for Luka to pass the ball out to them for a shot, and Dwight Powell being lethal in the pick-and-roll for his excellent rolling abilities. None of these bigs for the Mavericks are defensively capable enough of guarding Ayton in the post, let alone to pull down rebounds against him. Rebounding is a huge part of the game though, so the Mavericks might want to consider having all of their guys crash the defensive-glass to try to limit second chance opportunities for the Suns. Expect for the Mavericks to send multiple defenders at Devin Booker or at least play more help defense on him next game; rightfully so. Last game they pretty much left whoever was guarding Booker on an island and D-Book capitalized on those chances, getting bucket after bucket. The Mavericks also absolutely need Spencer Dinwiddie to step his game up, he has shown that he can drop in 30 points when they need him to and I've seen him rally the team back while losing; he did so against my Warriors. He had 8 points last game and only attempted 8 shots in the 30 minutes he played, he needs to at least try to do more. And if he does, thats a major boost for this Mavericks team and their chances of making it to the next round of the playoffs. Conclusion: My prediction for this series is the Suns win 4-1, therefore I don't see the Mavericks completing the upset. But, the rest of this series should be really fun, the Mavericks are not going to go down easy--if at all.
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"It's the Most Wonnnderful Time of the Yearrrrr". Why? Because the NBA Playoffs are here! Notice the rhyme scheme there. I'm a little late to the scene with my post-season predictions as there have already been a few playoff games played. Nonetheless, I still want to make my bracket and chose who I think will win it all this year. An important disclaimer to make for those that don't know how the NBA playoffs work: each series is best of 7, meaning the winner of the series is the first to win 4 games. Without further ado, allow me to hop right into it. 1) Suns vs. 8) PelicansAhhh...the good ol' 1-8 matchup. In systematic basketball terms, this first round matchup of the 1st seed vs. the 8th seed is theoretically supposed to pit the worst team in the conference (the team that finished 8th) against the best team in the conference (the team that finished 1st). And to be honest, this matchup fits that mold. I predict the Suns will beat the Pelicans in 5 (4-1). When a series goes to 5 games, it is also called a "gentlemen's sweep"; so this scenario would be considered just that. There's not much to say about this series. The Pelicans are a relatively deep team with two rookies making solid contributions in Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. They have two all-star caliber perimeter players in CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram (a personal favorite of mine). They also have a fringe top-7 center in Jonas Valančiūnas. And I would be remiss not to mention the recently emerging, "next Patrick Beverley", Jose Alvarado; go look up a video of his "sneaky steals" compilation on YouTube, he is adding a whole new dynamic to the NBA by literally, hiding on on the court in order to steal the ball. With that being said though, the Suns are the most complete team in the NBA. They have an MVP candidate and all-star guard in Devin Booker, a top-5 point guard of all time in Chris Paul who is still in all-star form and is probably the greatest basketball mind ever. The Suns' superior talent and execution should triumph the Pelicans in this series. I have the Suns winning in 5 games instead of a clean sweep solely because I believe Brandon Ingram and CJ are good enough to snag 1 win in the series; if this matchup ends up going 6 or 7 games then I would surely be surprised. Overall the Pelicans simply do not do/have 1 thing better than the Suns (that I can think of). Another vital aspect to keep in consideration is that the Suns are fresh off an NBA Finals appearance just last season and are looking to make it back there. If the Suns don't end up back in the Finals, I am almost certain that it won't be the Pelicans who knock them off. Although an NBA championship is the ultimate goal for any team and fan base and no one wants to lose in the first round, I would consider the Pelicans even making it here as a major win. They were for the whole season, and still are, without their franchise centerpiece Zion Williamson due to injury; therefore the fact that they made it into the playoffs and developed a solid, core body of role-players along the way has to be promising to the organization, players, and fans. 2) Grizzlies vs. 7) TimberwolvesNow, this is a series that isn't too clear to me. The T-Wolves are having a tremendous resurgence this season and have made their way into the playoffs for the first time in 4 years. Their team is spearheaded by offensive-monsters in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D'Angelo Russell, however, a newly acquired perimeter role-player in Patrick Beverley and a much improved "Swiss Army knife" type role-player in Jarred Vanderbelt have ballooned this team's defense and intensity, setting themselves apart from last year's version of the team. On the other side, while the Grizzlies success this season, after being the 8th seed last year, has been one of the better stories from this season. And with the rise of Ja Morant into superstardom and MVP of the league talk. The Grizzlies are still without that co-star to lead the team along with Ja. With that in mind, I can't be as confident as I am with the Suns, that they (the Grizzlies) will make it past the first round. The Grizzlies have Jaren Jackson Jr., who has stood out this season as one of the greatest defensive players in the league, and on offense can get a solid 16 points for you and knock down an open shot. Another thing going for the Grizzlies is that they are one of the best executing teams in the league. Accompanying that execution is their depth; a testament to this is their 20-5 record this season in games without their Superstar and best player, Ja Morant. I expect the Grizzlies to win this series in 6 games. The main determiner of this series for me is going to be how the Grizzlies deal with Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is the 3rd or 4th best center in the league and undoubtedly the best shooter at the center position ever. If the Grizzlies can contain him then I think they have a good chance of winning this series. Fortunately for the Grizzlies, they have two dominant players at the big positions to throw at Towns. Steven Adams (Memphis Grizzlies' center) especially, even though he might be the worse defender in comparison with Jaren Jackson Jr., Adams is unanimously known to be the strongest player in the whole league, so that strength might be useful in keeping Towns from backing his way into the paint and overpowering his way to big scoring numbers. At the same time, the T-Wolves have shown they can win games even when Towns isn't playing well. These factors are what incline me to predict the T-Wolves will steal a couple of games or maybe even 3. But at the end of the day the T-Wolves are a wild-card and the Grizzlies are the far superior team in execution, not to mention Ja Morant is liable to completely dominate. Once again, I see the Grizzlies winning the series against the T-Wolves 4-2. But if the T-Wolves end up winning, I quite frankly wouldn't be surprised. 3) Warriors vs. 6) NuggetsThis is indisputably one of the best series of the first round as an inconsistent, but lethal Warriors team takes on an overachieving Nuggets team that has been absolutely carried this season by the likely to be NBA MVP of this season, Nikola Jokić. The Warriors are the favorites to win this series, however, there are a few factors to watch out for. First and foremost is Jokić, if the Warriors fail to slow him down then they could be in a whole world of trouble, an issue that can be exacerbated for the Warriors since they don't necessarily have anyone at Jokić's size (7 feet tall). Kevon Looney (height is 6'9'') will have the Jokić matchup most of the time, but the Warriors will surely rely on their guy's playing help defense when Jokić has the ball. The only problem with other Warriors defenders going to help guard Jokić is that it requires they leave their man open. And Jokić is one the greatest passers ever, so if Warriors' players leave their man, even a little, just to help guard Jokić, then Jokić is bound to hit that open man for scoring opportunities. Another problem for the Warriors is their rotations have been super inconsistent this season due to injury, therefore most of their guys haven't had a chance to build synergy. And that lack of synergy can easily translate to lackluster offense at times and more frequent mistakes. Overall though, if the Warriors can avoid scoring droughts, games with high amounts of turnovers, and total Jokić domination, then they are probably certain to get past the first round. My prediction is that the Warriors beat the Nuggets in 6 games. Nuggets fans can hope for role-players that make up the rest of the team next Jokić to step up and get hot, because if that happens, the Nuggets could certainly come out of this series the victor. Besides that scenario though, it would take a phenomenal effort on Jokić's part, or the Warriors crumbling for the Nuggets to advance to the second round. 4) Mavericks vs. 5) JazzAssuming Luka Dončić can make his return sometime in this first round, out of all the first round playoff series in the West, this matchup is the most up in the air for me. Luka Dončić of the Mavericks is the best player in this series. This is his 3rd time being in the playoffs, out of his 4 seasons being in the league thus far; but this is his first time facing a team in the playoffs that is not named the L.A Clippers. Mavericks' fans are probably rejoicing at the fact that they get to see their favorite team play against someone other than the Clippers this year, as that is who they have played against in the previous two seasons, both times they were defeated by the Clips. Drawing you back into thinking about this year's matchup though, The Jazz are probably the better all around team, but not by much. The lack of big depth by the Mavs, as they traded away Kristaps Porziņģis earlier this season, will certainly come back to bite them as the Jazz have one of the most dominant defensive centers of all time in Rudy Gobert, but who can also dominate the glass on both sides of the floor (get rebounds on offense and defense). If the Mavericks get some big games from Spencer Dinwiddie or someone else besides Luka, then they probably will win this series. But even if it is just the Luka show for the Mavericks and everyone else just plays their role, then they still have a solid chance of winning the series. The Jazz have the superior roster all around and are without a doubt a better team execution-wise. For the Jazz, all they need is for Rudy Gobert to dominate the paint as he should, Donovan Mitchell to play solid consistently and pour in big stats some nights, and for their defense to stop Mavericks' players other than Luka from heating up, and they should win the series. In fact, I predict the Jazz to win the series in 7, if not 6. Disclaimer: I can see the Mavericks winning in 6 or 7 games too, it's just if I were to bet, I would pick the Jazz.
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